Climate Change and Planning and Consultation for the UK Aviation White Paper

This note discusses environmental aspects of the planning and consultation process undertaken for the UK aviation White Paper. The process as a whole has involved some three years of forecasting and assessment of the operational, economic and environmental implications of some 28 options for airport expansion at 14 UK locations. Unconstrained passenger demand forecasts have been used as a basis for the planning and consultation, and a mitigation approach to environment has predominated. This is inadequate, given the climate impacts of the forecast aviation expansion. Greenhouse gas emissions reduction should be a high priority in transport infrastructure planning, not the subject of post-hoc analysis.     

Asymptotics in adaptive cluster sampling

In this article we consider asymptotic properties of the Horvitz-Thompson and Hansen-Hurwitz types of estimators under the adaptive cluster sampling variants obtained by selecting the initial sample by simple random sampling without replacement and by unequal probability sampling with replacement. We develop an asymptotic framework, which basically assumes that the number of units in the initial sample, as well as the number of units and networks in the population tend to infinity, but that the network sizes are bounded. Using this framework we prove that under each of the two variants of adaptive sampling above mentioned, both the Horvitz-Thompson and Hansen-Hurwitz types of estimators are design-consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. In addition we show that the ordinary estimators of their variances are also design-consistent estimators.     

Persistence of Forest Birds in the Costa Rican Agricultural Countryside

Abstract:  Understanding the persistence mechanisms of tropical forest species in human-dominated landscapes is a fundamental challenge of tropical ecology and conservation. Many species, including more than half of Costa Rica's native land birds, use mostly deforested agricultural countryside, but how they do so is poorly known. Do they commute regularly to forest or can some species survive in this human-dominated landscape year-round? Using radiotelemetry, we detailed the habitat use, movement, foraging, and nesting patterns of three bird species, Catharus aurantiirostris , Tangara icterocephala , and Turdus assimilis , by obtaining 8101 locations from 156 individuals. We chose forest birds that varied in their vulnerability to deforestation and were representative of the species found both in forest and human-dominated landscapes. Our study species did not commute from extensive forest; rather, they fed and bred in the agricultural countryside. Nevertheless, T. icterocephala and T. assimilis , which are more habitat sensitive, were highly dependent on the remaining trees. Although trees constituted only 11% of land cover, these birds spent 69% to 85% of their time in them. Breeding success of C. aurantiirostris and T. icterocephala in deforested habitats was not different than in forest remnants, where T. assimilis experienced reduced breeding success. Although this suggests an ecological trap for T. assimilis , higher fledgling survival in forest remnants may make up for lower productivity. Tropical countryside has high potential conservation value, which can be enhanced with even modest increases in tree cover. Our findings have applicability to many human-dominated tropical areas that have the potential to conserve substantial biodiversity if appropriate restoration measures are taken.     

Strategic Rat Control for Restoring Populations of Native Species in Forest Fragments

Forest fragments have biodiversity value that may be enhanced through management such as control of non‐native predators. However, such efforts may be ineffective, and research is needed to ensure that predator control is done strategically. We used Bayesian hierarchical modeling to estimate fragment‐specific effects of experimental rat control on a native species targeted for recovery in a New Zealand pastoral landscape. The experiment was a modified BACI (before‐after‐control‐impact) design conducted over 6 years in 19 forest fragments with low‐density subpopulations of North Island Robins (Petroica longipes). The aim was to identify individual fragments that not only showed clear benefits of rat control, but also would have a high probability of subpopulation growth even if they were the only fragment managed. We collected data on fecundity, adult and juvenile survival, and juvenile emigration, and modeled the data in an integrated framework to estimate the expected annual growth rate (λ) of each subpopulation with and without rat control. Without emigration, subpopulation growth was estimated as marginal (λ = 0.95–1.05) or negative (λ = 0.74–0.90) without rat control, but it was estimated as positive in all fragments (λ = 1.4–2.1) if rats were controlled. This reflected a 150% average increase in fecundity and 45% average increase in adult female survival. The probability of a juvenile remaining in its natal fragment was 0.37 on average, but varied with fragment connectivity. With juvenile emigration added, 6 fragments were estimated to have a high (>0.8) probability of being self‐sustaining (λ > 1) with rat control. The key factors affecting subpopulation growth rates under rat control were low connectivity and stock fencing because these factors were associated with lower juvenile emigration and higher fecundity, respectively. However, there was also substantial random variation in adult survival among fragments, illustrating the importance of hierarchical modeling for fragmentation studies. Control Estratégico de Ratas para Restaurar Poblaciones de Especies Nativas en Fragmentos de Bosque     

Response Variables for Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Conservation Corridors

Many studies have evaluated effectiveness of corridors by measuring species presence in and movement through small structural corridors. However, few studies have assessed whether these response variables are adequate for assessing whether the conservation goals of the corridors have been achieved or considered the costs or lag times involved in measuring the response variables. We examined 4 response variables—presence of the focal species in the corridor, interpatch movement via the corridor, gene flow, and patch occupancy—with respect to 3 criteria—relevance to conservation goals, lag time (fewest generations at which a positive response to the corridor might be evident with a particular variable), and the cost of a study when applying a particular variable. The presence variable had the least relevance to conservation goals, no lag time advantage compared with interpatch movement, and only a moderate cost advantage over interpatch movement or gene flow. Movement of individual animals between patches was the most appropriate response variable for a corridor intended to provide seasonal migration, but it was not an appropriate response variable for corridor dwellers, and for passage species it was only moderately relevant to the goals of gene flow, demographic rescue, and recolonization. Response variables related to gene flow provided a good trade‐off among cost, relevance to conservation goals, and lag time. Nonetheless, the lag time of 10–20 generations means that evaluation of conservation corridors cannot occur until a few decades after a corridor has been established. Response variables related to occupancy were most relevant to conservation goals, but the lag time and costs to detect corridor effects on occupancy were much greater than the lag time and costs to detect corridor effects on gene flow. Variables de Respuesta para la Evaluación de la Efectividad de los Corredores de Conservación     

Endemism and Regional Color and Genetic Differences in Five Putatively Cosmopolitan Reef Fishes

Abstract:  Endemism is thought to be relatively rare in marine systems due to the lack of allopatric barriers and the potential for long-distance colonization via pelagic larval dispersal. Although many species of coral reef fishes exhibit regionally restricted color variants that are suggestive of regional endemism, such variation is typically ascribed to intraspecific variation. We examined the genetic structure in 5 putatively monospecific fishes from the Indo-West Pacific ( Amphiprion melanopus , Chrysiptera talboti , and Pomacentrus moluccensis [Pomacentridae] and Cirrhilabrus punctatus , and Labroides dimidiatus [Labridae]) that express regional color variation unique to this area. Mitochondrial-control-region sequence analysis showed shallow to deep genetic divergence in all 5 species (sequence divergence 2–17%), with clades concordant with regional color variation. These results were partially supported by nuclear RAG2 data. An analysis of molecular variation (AMOVA) mirrored the phylogenetic results; Φ_ST values ranged from 0.91 to 0.7, indicating high levels of geographic partitioning of genetic variation. Concordance of genetics and phenotype demonstrate the genetic uniqueness of southwestern Pacific color variants, indicating that these populations are at a minimum distinct evolutionarily significant units and perhaps distinct regionally endemic species. Our results indicate that the alpha biodiversity of the southwestern Pacific is likely underestimated even in well-studied groups, such as reef fishes, and that regional endemism may be more common in tropical marine systems than previously thought.     

Consensus on Criteria for Potential Areas for Wolf Reintroduction in Mexico

Abstract: Given the conflict with human interests that in many cases results in the extirpation of large carnivores, acceptance of their reintroduction is a considerable challenge. By the 1980s Mexican wolves (Canis lupus) were extinct in the wild. In 1998 a population was reintroduced in the Blue Range Mountains of New Mexico (U.S.A.). Efforts to reintroduce the species in Mexico have been ongoing since the late 1980s. Four teams working independently identified 6 areas in northern Mexico in the historic range of Mexican wolves, where reintroductions could potentially be successful. Each team used different methods and criteria to identify the areas, which makes it difficult to prioritize among these areas. Therefore, members of the different teams worked together to devise criteria for use in identifying priority areas. They identified areas with high, intermediate, and low potential levels of conflict between wolves and humans. Areas with low potential conflict had larger buffers (i.e., distance from human settlement to areas suitable for wolves) around human settlements than high‐ and intermediate‐conflict areas and thus were thought most appropriate for the first reintroduction. High‐conflict areas contained habitat associated with wolf presence, but were closer to human activity. The first reintroduction of Mexican wolves to Mexico occurred in October 2011 in one of the identified low‐conflict areas. The identification of suitable areas for reintroduction represents a crucial step in the process toward the restoration of large carnivores. Choice of the first reintroduction area can determine whether the reintroduction is successful or fails. A failure may preclude future reintroduction efforts in a region or country.     

Organotin contamination in South American coastal areas

Organotin compounds (OTs) were used in antifouling paints for more than four decades. However, due to their widespread intensive use and high toxicity, undesirable effects in non-target marine organisms have been detected since the early 1980s. Consequently, the International Maritime Organization banned new maritime applications of these products on January 1, 2003 and their presence on ship hulls from January 1, 2008. Although extensively studied in Europe, North America, Oceania, and Asia, environmental levels and effects of organotin contamination are still poorly known for South America. Thus, the current review aimed to present the actual status of this problem in South America by summarizing and comparing the available data in the literature. An overview of the OTs concentrations in sediment and biota and their effects, mainly imposex in marine gastropods, are presented. This work showed that in Atlantic coastal areas of South America there are “hot spots” of OTs contamination, similar to that observed in industrialized countries of Northern Hemisphere. On the other hand, the number of accomplished studies in the Pacific coast is extremely low. Despite the limitation on studies about OTs environmental levels and their related effects, the available data pointed out for a widespread TBT contamination along the South American coastal areas. Therefore, the establishment of baselines of organotin contamination in the Pacific coast and the implementation of temporal trend studies in the South American coastal areas is crucial to verify the effectiveness of local regulations and OTs global ban, and to map the most sensitive areas related to present and future antifouling impacts.     

Generality of Models that Predict the Distribution of Species: Conservation Activity and Reduction of Model Transferability for a Threatened Bustard

Abstract:  Predictive models can help clarify the distribution of poorly known species but should display strong transferability when applied to independent data. Nevertheless, model transferability for threatened tropical species is poorly studied. We built models predicting the incidence of the critically endangered Bengal Florican ( Houbaropsis bengalensis ) within the Tonle Sap (TLS) floodplain, Cambodia. Separate models were constructed with soil, land-use, and landscape data and species incidence sampled over the entire floodplain (12,000 km²) and from the Kompong Thom (KT) province (4000 km²). In each case, the probability of Bengal Florican presence within randomly selected 1 × 1 km squares was modeled by binary logistic regression with multimodel inference. We assessed the transferability of the KT model by comparing predictions with observed incidence elsewhere in the floodplain. In terms of standard model-validation statistics, the KT model showed good spatial transferability. Nevertheless, it overpredicted florican presence outside the KT calibration region, classifying 491 km² as suitable habitat compared with 237 km² predicted as suitable by the TLS model. This resulted from higher species incidence within the calibration region, probably owing to a program of conservation education and enforcement that has reduced persecution there. Because both research and conservation activity frequently focus on areas with higher density, such effects could be widespread, reducing transferability of predictive distribution models.     

Relative influence of the dissolved humic material on the solid-phase extraction efficiency of pesticides from environmental water

The effect of organic matter on the solid-phase extraction (SPE) efficiency for pesticides belonging to different chemical groups (urea-derivatives, carbamates and triazines) and having different polarities, was simultaneously studied for the first time in pure and simulated water samples. SPE was carried out in precolumns packed with C18 silica or styrene-divinylbenzene copolymer PLRP-S phases on-line coupled to high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis. Retention factors in water (k'_W) were estimated for 25 compounds and used for the calculation of the theoretical breakthrough volume (Vb_T) in pure water. Experimental breakthrough volumes (Vb_E) were first determined using purified and deionized water as the matrix for selected compounds having Vb_T < 500 mL; then, the same water with an added humic acid sodium salt (HA) at 0.4–5.6 mg/L of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content, was used as the matrix for compounds having VbE < 500 mL in pure water. Several polar pesticides showed negative linear or logarithmic Vb_E curves depending on HA content; their recoveries were also determined in environmental samples having low dissolved organic carbon values, between 0.5–6.4 mg/L. A similar behavior was observed for these compounds in simulated and natural water samples, where DOC concentration and the percolated volume (Vp) mainly determine the solute recoveries values. However, the variation of recoveries as a function of DOC content could be negative or null depending on the two examined conditions (Vp lower or larger than Vb_E in pure water). Results demonstrated that breakthrough volume must always be considered to correctly interpret the participation of dissolved humic material on the SPE efficiency of organic micropollutants in water.